Impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en los precios de la gasolina y el gas natural en las principales economías de Latinoamérica

Abstract

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Gasoline and Natural Gas Prices in the Major Latin American Economies 

This paper is aimed at evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, measured through the fatality index, on the gasoline and natural gas prices in the main Latin American economies: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Uruguay. These economies are not only the largest in the region, but also the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, these countries have shown, in the last decades, a growing demand for gasoline and natural gas. This research uses several panel data models with weekly data (February 2020 - February 2021). Two-way random-effects panel data models suggest empirical evidence that mortality rate growth rates, for all sample countries, have negative effects only on gasoline price growth rates; without any effect on the price of gas. In this research, the exchange rate is used as a control variable due to its relationship with hydrocarbon prices. Data used in the analysis are official without considering the mortality excess by specific cause of COVID-19. This type of analysis in Latin America, as far as the authors know, is novel and contributes to the discussion of the conjuncture between the health crisis and its relationship with volatility of energy prices.