Dinámica anticipada del PIB trimestral en México ante shocks negativos derivados de factores debidos a la crisis sanitaria del covid-19

Abstract

Anticipated Dynamics of Quarterly GDP in Mexico in the Face of Negative Shocks Arising from Factors due to the Covid-19 Health Crisis

This article presents the anticipated effects in terms of Mexico´s Gross National Product (GNP) quarterly growth rates due to shocks which are expected to impact those quarterly growth rates in the context of the covid-19 macroeconomics impacts. As econometric procedures, we identify a Markovian autoregressive of best-fit to data on the dynamics of those quarterly growth rate from Q1-1960 to Q4-2019, under four statistical states, given by different means and volatilities in growth rates. After that, we introduce some negative shocks that are equivalent to several macroeconomic effects related to covid-19. Through this econometric simulation exercise, we found that the GNP growth rate could be negative during a period from two to six yearly quarter, depending on the magnitude and persistence of negative shocks and the eventual stabilizing effects that could occur in the Mexican economy. This contribution offers an econometric model to estimate the impacts of relevant and unexpected macroeconomics events even when such impacts could not be described under conventional probability distributions.