México 2020-2024: dos escenarios macroeconómicos

Abstract

(Mexico 2020-2024: Two Macroeconomic Scenarios)

In a context of high internal uncertainty that has been aggravated by the complex global economic, political (and now health) environment, a numerical analysis is made from dynamic stochastic simulations derived from Eudoxio: macroeconometric model of the Mexican economy (Loría, 2019a) that generates two macroeconomic scenarios for Mexico (inertial and pessimistic) in its main variables of economic activity for the 2020-2024 horizon. This article stands out for starting from the prospective analysis of scenarios, the inertial scenario shows an average growth of GDP and employment of 1.27% and 1.6% against 0.64% and 1.04% of the pessimistic scenario, respectively, which are subject to the behavior of the economic variables during the pandemic evolution (which is just beginning), which could lead the country to the worst crisis in history. To consider an optimistic scenario, a true change in policies and official discourse would be needed to recover fundamental aspects of the energy reform and address the enormous challenges posed by crime and fiscal aspects on economic growth.