Linear and nonlinear causality between marriages, births, and economic growth

Abstract

This article aims to identify the number of births as a forward-looking indicator concerning periods of economic crises for the case of Mexico, and other countries with different levels of economic development. In order to define the behavior of the number of births, simple graphical evidence, a Granger causality analysis, and phase synchronization between a set of economic variables and life-long decisions, such as having a baby and marriage, were used. The obtained results indicate that the number of births present an anticipated behavior regarding important economic variables and some causal relations. Phase synchronization illustrated the absence of synchronization during crisis periods, which coincides with the graphical evidence. Future studies could consider other demographic variables such as divorce and suicide. Despite the availability and periodicity of the data being the main limitations of this study and leading the selection of the studied economies, phase synchronization had never before been used with demographic variables. The variable of Marriages was not relevant in determining the number of births, whereas this latter demonstrated being a variable that promotes the GDP.