La relación entre robo y desempleo de varones jóvenes en México, 2005-2017

Abstract

(The relationship between theft and youth male unemployment in Mexico, 2005-2017)

Using the theory of rational choice, we econometrically tested the economic determinants of theft through a BVAR that analyzes the relationship of theft with the precariousness of the labor market and the unemployment rate of men aged 15 to 24 years without higher education. We found that there is a vicious cycle between the precariousness of the labor market, theft, unemployment and economic activity. Therefore, we suggest that an efficient public security policy would be one that not only strongly fights crime but also simultaneously addresses its socioeconomic origin and reduces impunity. The main limitation is not considering other determinants such as spending on security, but the robustness of the results does not indicate that it is a deficiency. This article demonstrates that the determinants of theft can be explained by this approach and not just by antisocial behavior. It is necessary to articulate a multi-faceted strategy that could quickly reduce theft because otherwise, it will continue to proliferate.