Efecto de los precios del petróleo en la actividad económica sectorial de México. Análisis para el periodo 2002-2018

Abstract

Effect of Oil Prices on the Sectoral Economic Activity in Mexico: Analysis for the 2002-2018 period

This work analyzes the role of oil prices in the variations of the sectoral economic activity in Mexico. The period analyzed is January 2002 to January 2018, in a monthly frequency. The proposed methodology is that of a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for each economic sector. This model adds the following as control variables: oil prices, industrial activity index by sector, consumer prices, nominal interest rate, economic activity, and real exchange rate. In addition, response impulse functions are built for all industrial sectors and subsectors. The originality of this work lies in it being one of the pioneers in analyzing the effects of oil prices in the different branches of sectoral activity in Mexico. Among the outstanding results is that variations in oil prices positively affect the manufacturing branch. Likewise, it is found that variations in public spending directly affect the mining sector. It is concluded that the sectors most linked to the external sector are the most influenced by shocks in oil prices.