LAS RELACIONES DE CAUSALIDAD ENTRE EL GASTO PÚBLICO Y EL PRODUCTO EN MÉXICO: ¿EXISTE EVIDENCIA DE CAMBIO ESTRUCTURAL?

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to er,raluate Wagner's law and the Keynesian paradigm in a multivariate context using Mexican annual data for the period 1970-2004. The main results indicate the existence of a cointegrating relationship between per-capita income, investment and public expenditure. The values of the coefficients suggest that investment and public expenditure have a positive impact on income. However, both variables have coefficients less than one rejecting Wagner's law. The weak exogeneity tests indicate that per-capita income and public expenditure are endogenous; meanwhile the Granger non-causality tests do not support the hypothesis of public expenditure causing per-capita income. Also, per-capita income changes dot no cause public expenditure. In general the analysis confirms the positive effect of investment and public expenditure on income but rejects the two extreme cases of the Wagner law and the Keynesian paradigm.