CRISIS BANCARIAS Y ALTERNATIVAS PARA MODELAR EL RIESGO DE CRÉDITO; EN BUSCA DEL MEJOR INDICADOR

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to found whiting a group of indicators that models the credit risk, which is the most effective to warn a vulnerability situation in the banking system. Three indicators were analyzed and using a probit model with random effects, with a panel of 17 countries, it founded that the FMI indicator and the ratio of the rate of growth of the credit to the private sector to the rate of growth of GDP, explain in effective ways different levels of vulnerability.