El CRÉDITO BANCARIO COMO AR(1): EL CASO DE MÉXICO 1980-2003

Abstract

Current literature considers banking credit as a factor that promotes economic grora'th. For the Mexican case, in the period 1980-2003, we observe that credit -relative to GDP- reflects a constant temporal path or, at most, a non pronounced increasing temporal path. This evidence indicates that ratio credit-GDP is a time series that could be stationary and modeled with a pth-order autorregressive process (lR(p)). This paper shows that the series is well modeled with an AR(1) an that this representation is consistent with an elemental dynamic programming model.