LAS EXPECTATIVAS RACIONALES Y SUS EFECTOS EN LAS VARIABLES REALES DE LA ECONOMÍA

Abstract

The present article shows the evolution of rational and adaptive expectations in the specification of macroeconomic models. It is demonstrated through the formal specification of the Lucas and Sargent-Wallace models that policies do not have real effects in the economy nevertheless, this result <loes not obey to the incorporation of the rational expectations hypothesis, but to the drained assumption of the markets, as it is demonstrated with the formal model of Fisher, in which, even considering expectations, the systematic policies even have effects in the real variables of the economy in the long term. One concludes that the expectations are not the central point of the controversies, but of the assumptions on which they are constructed, which leads the differences in the results of the contra cyclic government's policies.